January 31, 2004

NY TIMES - Powell's Case, a Year Later: Gaps in Picture of Iraq Arms


Even one of the most compelling sections of Mr. Powell's presentation, satellite photographs of suspected chemical weapons sites, appears to have been misjudged. The suspicious-looking movement at several sites of what were believed to be decontamination vehicles and trucks covered with tarps more likely involved more benign commercial activity; inspectors found no evidence of weapons production.
The administration's evidence, according to the interviews, was much more accurate in the arena of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles: very active programs were under way for both. The missiles clearly violated range limits set by the United Nations, and Mr. Hussein was trying to buy better technology from North Korea.
"There are still millions of documents that have yet to be examined, thousands of scientists and former government officials yet to be thoroughly debriefed, and countless possible hiding sites which have yet to be searched," the senior intelligence official said. "We find it puzzling that those who say the intelligence community reached its conclusions on limited evidence are reaching opposite conclusions on even less."
Dr. Kay rejected [Paul Krugman's] charges that policy makers pressured analysts to bend their assessments to fit the administration's need to justify the coming war. He said he had talked to a number of C.I.A. analysts involved in the prewar intelligence reports, and none ever told of pressure by the administration to shape reports.
One part of Mr. Powell's presentation holds up well: his assertion that Mr. Hussein was desperately trying to build missiles with a range to go far beyond the 90-mile limit set by the United Nations after the 1991 war.
When inspectors re-entered Iraq in November 2002, they reported "a surge of activity" since their last inspections more than four years earlier. Dr. Kay reported that detained scientists talked of efforts to build missiles with ranges upwards of 600 miles, enough to hit Israel and American troops in the region. There was discussion of missiles that could carry chemical weapons.